San Juan Capistrano Housing Market Update — Monday, October 5, 2026

October 05, 2026
Russell Walsh Realty
WEEKLY RESIDENTIAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

San Juan CapistranoHousing Market Update

Monday, October 5, 2026

San Juan Capistrano’s citywide median sale price posted at $2.44 million for September (county records) — a still-settling read on 22 recorded closings — with 104 homes for sale right now and the 30-year fixed at 7.28% for the week ending October 1.

Median $ Sold
$2.44M
Sep 2026 · county records
Realty.com · Sep 2026
Asking Trend
$1.884M
median list price
RealtyHop · live
Active Inventory
104
homes for sale
RealtyHop · live
Market Time
Not published
median DOM · not published
Realty.com · Sep 2026
Sale-to-List
98.9%
of asking
Realty.com · Sep 2026
30-Year Fixed
7.28%
+0.94 pt YoY
Freddie Mac · Oct 1

Quick read: San Juan Capistrano’s median sold about $2.44M (September county records, still settling), 104 homes for sale right now — with the 30-year fixed at 7.28%.

Hero photo: Mission San Juan Capistrano

The September price picture

September county records are still settling, and live asking prices sit well above recent closings — the classic list-versus-sold gap.

All-home median sale price

$2,440,000
September 2026 · county records (22 recorded sales, as of Sep 17) · period still settling

The September county-records read covers 22 recorded sales at a $2,440,000 median — but the period is explicitly still settling, so treat this number as directional. The typical sale range ran $1,701,250–$3,425,000 at $699 per square foot, and 36.4% of buyers paid cash. In the same release, MLS logged 45 September sales closing at 98.9% of asking, as of Sep 29.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 17 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

Live asking prices

$1,884,000
Median list price · live

104 residential homes currently for sale: 74 houses, 28 condos, 2 townhouses. Asking inventory refreshes hourly; listings range from $1,150,000 in the lower quartile to $3,236,750 in the upper quartile at $760 per square foot.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

Price per square foot

$699
September 2026 · Realty.com, county records

The median sold price worked out to $699 per square foot across September's 22 county-recorded sales.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 17 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

Sale-to-list

98.9%
September 2026 · Realty.com, MLS (45 sales, as of Sep 29)

September MLS sales closed at 98.9% of asking price — buyers here are paying below asking.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 17 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

Market time — not published this week

The September county-records release did not include a median days-on-market read, so this week’s market-time figure carries an explicit gap — not a substitute.

Median days on marketNot publishedRealty.com, September 2026 — not in this release
Other snapshot57 daysRealtyHop average, current listings (not a median)
Active inventory104RealtyHop live count, refreshed hourly

Sources: Realty.com and RealtyHop.

How the 104 break down

Live asking inventory spans detached houses, condos and townhouses — the segments buyers actually shop.

Houses for sale

74
of 104 live listings

Detached houses make up the largest share of the 104 live listings.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

Condos and townhouses

30
of 104 live listings · 28 condos, 2 townhouses

Attached homes round out current asking inventory beyond the 74 detached houses.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

7.28%
30-year fixed average
Week ending October 1, 2026

Rates are the pressure point

The 30-year fixed rate rose 25 basis points from 7.03% the prior week and stood 94 basis points above 6.34% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, up from 6.42% the prior week and 5.55% a year ago. “With mortgage rates on their current trajectory, the housing market continues to be supported by favorable economic conditions,” said Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater.

Borrowing costs at 7.28% are slowing urgency. That does not make every home negotiable, but it rewards buyers who compare condition, days on market and seller motivation carefully.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, press release October 1, 2026 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

National context

San Juan Capistrano’s September read sits inside a broader market where bond yields pushed borrowing costs higher and investors watch inflation data for the next rate move.

  • 5.342%10-year Treasury yield touched intraday on Oct 1 (Reuters, via market coverage) — mortgage rates follow bond yields.
  • 29,000Jobs added in the September employment report (released Oct 2) — supporting expectations the Federal Reserve may hold at its Oct 27–28 meeting.
  • Thursday, Oct 8The next Freddie Mac weekly average is due — watch whether the 30-year’s climb continues.

Source: market coverage of the Oct 1 Freddie Mac release and the Oct 2 jobs report.

How to read these figures

Realty.com’s September 2026 county-records median ($2,440,000, 22 recorded sales as of Sep 17) is the freshest monthly closed-sale figure — but the period is still settling, so treat small-sample months as directional. Realty.com does not publish a median-sale-price YoY %; its assessor repeat-sales index reads 100.0% YoY (flat) — a different methodology, not presented as median-price YoY. Median days on market was not published in the September release, so the market-time card carries an explicit gap; RealtyHop’s 57-day figure is an average for current listings, not a median for closings. Active-inventory counts vary by source and methodology: RealtyHop’s live residential count showed 104 (74 houses, 28 condos, 2 townhouses), refreshed hourly. MLS sales closed at 98.9% of asking in September (45 sales as of Sep 29), with 36.4% of county-recorded buyers paying cash. Redfin figures are omitted this edition: the text extraction returned stale (Oct 2025-labeled) figures and no live-browser verification was available.

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Russell Walsh

Russell Walsh, Russell Walsh Realty — South Orange County real estate.

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