San Juan Capistrano Housing Market Update — Monday, October 12, 2026

October 12, 2026
Russell Walsh Realty
WEEKLY RESIDENTIAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

San Juan CapistranoHousing Market Update

Monday, October 12, 2026

San Juan Capistrano’s citywide median sale price posted at $1.83 million for September (county records, 43 recorded closings as of Sep 29) — with 106 homes for sale right now and the 30-year fixed at 7.40% for the week ending October 8.

Median $ Sold
$1.83M
Sep 2026 · county records
Realty.com · Sep 2026
Asking Trend
$1.899M
median list price
RealtyHop · live
Active Inventory
106
homes for sale
RealtyHop · live
Market Time
49 days
median DOM · homes sold
Redfin · 3 mo. to Sep 2026
Sale-to-List
99.0%
of asking
Realty.com · Sep 2026
30-Year Fixed
7.40%
+1.10 pt YoY
Freddie Mac · Oct 8

Quick read: San Juan Capistrano’s median sold about $1.83M (September county records), 106 homes for sale right now — with the 30-year fixed at 7.40%.

Hero photo: Mission San Juan Capistrano

The September price picture

September county records now cover 43 recorded sales, and live asking prices sit modestly above recent closings — a narrow list-versus-sold gap.

All-home median sale price

$1,825,000
September 2026 · county records (43 recorded sales, as of Sep 29)

The September county-records read covers 43 recorded sales at a $1,825,000 median. The typical sale range ran $967,500–$3,078,750 at $670 per square foot, and 32.6% of buyers paid cash. In the same release, MLS logged 46 September sales closing at 99.0% of asking, as of Sep 30.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 29 — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

Live asking prices

$1,899,450
Median list price · live

106 residential homes currently for sale: 73 houses, 31 condos, 2 townhouses. Asking inventory refreshes hourly; listings range from $1,216,250 in the lower quartile to $3,271,000 in the upper quartile at $778 per square foot.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

Price per square foot

$670
September 2026 · Realty.com, county records

The median sold price worked out to $670 per square foot across September's 43 county-recorded sales.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 29 — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

Sale-to-list

99.0%
September 2026 · Realty.com, MLS (46 sales, as of Sep 30)

September MLS sales closed at 99.0% of asking price — buyers here are paying just below asking.

Source: Realty.com (MLS), September 2026 as of Sep 30 — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

Market time — from Redfin this week

Realty.com’s September release did not include a median days-on-market read, so this week’s market-time figure comes from the next source in our chain: Redfin’s median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 — a longer window than the single-month September price figures.

Median days on market49 daysRedfin, homes sold — 3 months ending Sep 2026
Other snapshot56 daysRealtyHop average, current listings, as of Oct 12 (not a median)
Active inventory106RealtyHop live count, refreshed hourly

Sources: Redfin (median days on market, 3 months ending Sep 2026), Realty.com and RealtyHop.

How the 106 break down

Live asking inventory spans detached houses, condos and townhouses — the segments buyers actually shop.

Houses for sale

73
of 106 live listings

Detached houses make up the largest share of the 106 live listings.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

Condos and townhouses

33
of 106 live listings · 31 condos, 2 townhouses

Attached homes round out current asking inventory beyond the 73 detached houses.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 12, 2026.

7.40%
30-year fixed average
Week ending October 8, 2026

Rates are the pressure point

The 30-year fixed rate rose 12 basis points from 7.28% the prior week and stood 110 basis points above 6.30% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%, up from 6.60% the prior week and 5.53% a year ago. “As market conditions continue to evolve, borrowers should remember that shopping around for a mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes can potentially save them thousands over the loan’s lifetime,” Freddie Mac said in its weekly release.

Borrowing costs at 7.40% are slowing urgency. That does not make every home negotiable, but it rewards buyers who compare condition, days on market and seller motivation carefully.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly averages as of October 8, 2026 (released Oct 8, 12 p.m. ET; re-checked Oct 12, 2026).

National context

San Juan Capistrano’s September read sits inside a broader market where bond yields pushed borrowing costs higher and investors watch jobs and inflation data for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

  • 5.24%10-year Treasury par yield on Oct 9 (U.S. Treasury daily yield curve) — mortgage rates follow bond yields.
  • 29,000Jobs added in the September employment report (released Oct 2), with unemployment at 4.2% — Reuters reported the slowdown nearly took another Fed rate hike this month off the table.
  • Thursday, Oct 15The next Freddie Mac weekly average is due — the latest 7.40% extended the 30-year’s climb.

Sources: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, Oct 9, 2026 (extracted Oct 12, 2026); Reuters coverage of the BLS September jobs report, Oct 2, 2026 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

How to read these figures

Realty.com’s September 2026 county-records median ($1,825,000, 43 recorded sales as of Sep 29) is the freshest monthly closed-sale figure; it replaces the earlier, smaller-sample September read ($2,440,000 on 22 sales as of Sep 17) shown in the October 5 edition, so treat month-to-month moves in small samples as directional. Median days on market was not published in Realty.com’s September release, so it comes from the next source in the fallback chain: Redfin reports a 49-day median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 (Redfin calculations from MLS and/or public records; 48 days a year earlier) — a different source and a longer window than the single-month September price figures. RealtyHop’s 56-day figure (as of Oct 12) is an average for current listings, not a median for closings. Active-inventory counts vary by source and methodology: RealtyHop’s live residential count showed 106 (73 houses, 31 condos, 2 townhouses), refreshed hourly, while Realty.com’s MLS snapshot (as of Sep 27) showed 139 homes for sale at a $1,275,000 median list price. MLS sales closed at 99.0% of asking in September (46 sales as of Sep 30), with 32.6% of county-recorded buyers paying cash. Redfin is used only for median days on market; its city page was checked on Oct 12, 2026.

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Russell Walsh

Russell Walsh, Russell Walsh Realty — South Orange County real estate.

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