San Juan Capistrano Housing Market Update — Monday, October 19, 2026

October 19, 2026
Russell Walsh Realty
WEEKLY RESIDENTIAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

San Juan CapistranoHousing Market Update

Monday, October 19, 2026

San Juan Capistrano’s citywide median sale price held at $1.83 million for September (county records, 43 recorded closings as of Sep 30) — while live inventory thinned to 75 homes for sale and the 30-year fixed held at 7.40% for the week ending October 15.

Median $ Sold
$1.83M
Sep 2026 · county records
Realty.com · Sep 2026
Asking Trend
$1.875M
median list price
RealtyHop · live
Active Inventory
75
homes for sale
RealtyHop · live
Market Time
49 days
median DOM · homes sold
Redfin · 3 mo. to Sep 2026
Sale-to-List
99.0%
of asking
Realty.com · Sep 2026
30-Year Fixed
7.40%
+1.13 pt YoY
Freddie Mac · Oct 15

Quick read: San Juan Capistrano’s median sold about $1.83M (September county records), 75 homes for sale right now — with the 30-year fixed holding at 7.40%.

Hero photo: Mission San Juan Capistrano

The September price picture

September county records cover 43 recorded sales, and live asking prices sit just above recent closings — a narrow list-versus-sold gap.

All-home median sale price

$1,825,000
September 2026 · county records (43 recorded sales, as of Sep 30)

The September county-records read covers 43 recorded sales at a $1,825,000 median. The typical sale range ran $967,500–$2,956,000 at $670 per square foot, and 32.6% of buyers paid cash. In the same release, MLS logged 46 September sales closing at 99.0% of asking, as of Sep 30.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 30 — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

Live asking prices

$1,874,900
Median list price · live

75 residential homes currently for sale: 52 houses, 21 condos, 2 townhouses. Asking inventory refreshes hourly; listings range from $1,265,500 in the lower quartile to $3,334,000 in the upper quartile at $765 per square foot.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

Price per square foot

$670
September 2026 · Realty.com, county records

The median sold price worked out to $670 per square foot across September's 43 county-recorded sales.

Source: Realty.com (county records), September 2026 as of Sep 30 — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

Sale-to-list

99.0%
September 2026 · Realty.com, MLS (46 sales, as of Sep 30)

September MLS sales closed at 99.0% of asking price — buyers here are paying just below asking.

Source: Realty.com (MLS), September 2026 as of Sep 30 — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

Market time — from Redfin this week

Realty.com’s September release did not include a median days-on-market read, so this week’s market-time figure comes from the next source in our chain: Redfin’s median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 — a longer window than the single-month September price figures.

Median days on market49 daysRedfin, homes sold — 3 months ending Sep 2026
Other snapshot61 daysRealtyHop average, current listings, as of Oct 19 (not a median)
Active inventory75RealtyHop live count, refreshed hourly

Sources: Redfin (median days on market, 3 months ending Sep 2026), Realty.com and RealtyHop.

How the 75 break down

Live asking inventory spans detached houses, condos and townhouses — the segments buyers actually shop.

Houses for sale

52
of 75 live listings

Detached houses make up the largest share of the 75 live listings.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

Condos and townhouses

23
of 75 live listings · 21 condos, 2 townhouses

Attached homes round out current asking inventory beyond the 52 detached houses.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Oct 19, 2026.

7.40%
30-year fixed average
Week ending October 15, 2026

Rates are the pressure point

The 30-year fixed rate held at 7.40% — unchanged from the prior week — and stood 113 basis points above 6.27% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, down from 6.73% the prior week and 5.52% a year ago.

Borrowing costs at 7.40% are slowing urgency. That does not make every home negotiable, but it rewards buyers who compare condition, days on market and seller motivation carefully.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly averages as of October 15, 2026 (released Oct 15, 12 p.m. ET; extracted Oct 19, 2026).

National context

San Juan Capistrano’s September read sits inside a broader market where bond yields set the tone for borrowing costs and investors watch jobs and inflation data for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

  • 5.09%10-year Treasury par yield on Oct 16 (U.S. Treasury daily yield curve), down from 5.10% on Oct 15 and 5.19% on Oct 14 — mortgage rates follow bond yields.
  • 29,000Jobs added in the September employment report (released Oct 2), with unemployment at 4.2% — Reuters reported the slowdown nearly took another Fed rate hike this month off the table.
  • Thursday, Oct 22The next Freddie Mac weekly average is due — the latest read held the 30-year at 7.40% (as of Oct 15).

Sources: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, Oct 16, 2026 (extracted Oct 19, 2026); Reuters coverage of the BLS September jobs report, Oct 2, 2026 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

How to read these figures

Realty.com’s September 2026 county-records median ($1,825,000, 43 recorded sales, now dated as of Sep 30) is the freshest monthly closed-sale figure and is unchanged from last week’s edition; small monthly samples are directional. Median days on market was not published in Realty.com’s September release, so it comes from the next source in the fallback chain: Redfin reports a 49-day median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 (Redfin calculations from MLS and/or public records; 48 days a year earlier) — a different source and a longer window than the single-month September price figures. RealtyHop’s 61-day figure (as of Oct 19) is an average for current listings, not a median for closings. Active-inventory counts vary by source and methodology: RealtyHop’s live residential count showed 75 (52 houses, 21 condos, 2 townhouses), refreshed hourly and down from 106 a week earlier, while Realtor.com showed 125 active listings and Realty.com’s MLS snapshot (as of Sep 27) showed 139 homes for sale at a $1,275,000 median list price. MLS sales closed at 99.0% of asking in September (46 sales as of Sep 30), with 32.6% of county-recorded buyers paying cash. Redfin is used only for median days on market; its city page was checked on Oct 19, 2026.

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Russell Walsh

Russell Walsh, Russell Walsh Realty — South Orange County real estate.

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