San Juan Capistrano Housing Market Update — Monday, November 2, 2026

November 02, 2026
Russell Walsh Realty
WEEKLY RESIDENTIAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO

San Juan CapistranoHousing Market Update

Monday, November 2, 2026

San Juan Capistrano’s first October read is still settling: 21 county-recorded sales through Oct 20 carry a $1,435,000 median and early October MLS closings came in at 98.1% of asking — while live inventory slipped to 73 homes and the 30-year fixed eased to 7.24% for the week ending October 29.

Median $ Sold
$1.435M
Oct 2026 · still settling
Realty.com · Oct 2026
Asking Trend
$1.825M
median list price
RealtyHop · live
Active Inventory
73
homes for sale
RealtyHop · live
Market Time
49 days
median DOM · homes sold
Redfin · 3 mo. to Sep 2026
Sale-to-List
98.1%
of asking · Oct to date
Realty.com · Oct 2026
30-Year Fixed
7.24%
+1.07 pt YoY
Freddie Mac · Oct 29

Quick read: Early October closings (still settling) are running at 98.1% of asking, 73 homes are for sale right now, and the 30-year fixed eased to 7.24%.

Hero photo: Mission San Juan Capistrano

The early October price picture

Realty.com has rolled to its October 2026 release, which it flags as still settling: only 21 county-recorded sales so far, so treat the median as directional. Live asking prices sit well above those early closings.

All-home median sale price

$1,435,000
October 2026 · county records (21 recorded sales, as of Oct 20) · period still settling

The early October county-records read covers 21 recorded sales at a $1,435,000 median, with a typical sale range of $1,190,000–$2,285,000 at $676 per square foot; 23.8% of buyers paid cash. With so few sales recorded, this is not directly comparable to September’s full-month $1,825,000 (43 sales) — the mix of homes that closed matters more than the month-to-month move. Treat as directional until the month settles.

Source: Realty.com (county records), October 2026 as of Oct 20 — period still settling; extracted Nov 2, 2026.

Live asking prices

$1,824,900
Median list price · live

73 residential homes currently for sale: 50 houses, 21 condos, 2 townhouses. Asking inventory refreshes hourly; listings range from $1,265,000 in the lower quartile to $3,765,000 in the upper quartile at $758 per square foot. A week ago the live median was $1,856,450 across 76 homes.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Nov 2, 2026.

Price per square foot

$676
October 2026 · Realty.com, county records (still settling)

The median sold price worked out to $676 per square foot across October’s 21 county-recorded sales so far.

Source: Realty.com (county records), October 2026 as of Oct 20 — period still settling; extracted Nov 2, 2026.

Sale-to-list

98.1%
October 2026 · Realty.com, MLS (32 sales, as of Oct 30) · still settling

Early October MLS sales closed at 98.1% of asking price — buyers here are paying below asking (September: 99.0%).

Source: Realty.com (MLS), October 2026 as of Oct 30 — period still settling; extracted Nov 2, 2026.

Market time — from Redfin this week

Realty.com’s October release does not include a median days-on-market read, so this week’s market-time figure comes from the next source in our chain: Redfin’s median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 — a longer, older window than the October price figures.

Median days on market49 daysRedfin, homes sold — 3 months ending Sep 2026
Other snapshot63 daysRealtyHop average, current listings, as of Nov 2 (not a median)
Active inventory73RealtyHop live count, refreshed hourly

Sources: Redfin (median days on market, 3 months ending Sep 2026), Realty.com and RealtyHop.

How the 73 break down

Live asking inventory spans detached houses, condos and townhouses — the segments buyers actually shop.

Houses for sale

50
of 73 live listings

Detached houses make up the largest share of the 73 live listings.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Nov 2, 2026.

Condos and townhouses

23
of 73 live listings · 21 condos, 2 townhouses

Attached homes round out current asking inventory beyond the 50 detached houses.

Source: RealtyHop (live) — extracted Nov 2, 2026.

7.24%
30-year fixed average
Week ending October 29, 2026

Rates are the pressure point

The 30-year fixed rate eased to 7.24% — down from 7.32% the prior week — and stood 107 basis points above 6.17% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, down from 6.68% the prior week and up from 5.41% a year ago.

Borrowing costs at 7.24% are still slowing urgency. That does not make every home negotiable, but it rewards buyers who compare condition, days on market and seller motivation carefully.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly averages as of October 29, 2026 (released Oct 29; extracted Nov 2, 2026). Next release Thursday, Nov 5.

National context

San Juan Capistrano’s early October read sits inside a broader market where bond yields set the tone for borrowing costs and investors watch jobs and inflation data for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

  • 4.94%10-year Treasury par yield on Oct 30 (U.S. Treasury daily yield curve), down from 4.98% on Oct 29 and 5.05% on Oct 28 — mortgage rates follow bond yields.
  • 29,000Jobs added in the September employment report (released Oct 2), with unemployment at 4.2% — Reuters reported the slowdown nearly took another Fed rate hike this month off the table.
  • Thursday, Nov 5The next Freddie Mac weekly average is due — the latest read put the 30-year at 7.24% (as of Oct 29), down from 7.32% the week before.

Sources: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, Oct 30, 2026 (extracted Nov 2, 2026); Reuters coverage of the BLS September jobs report, Oct 2, 2026 — extracted Oct 5, 2026.

How to read these figures

Realty.com has moved to its October 2026 release, which it labels “still settling”: the county-records median ($1,435,000) covers only 21 recorded sales as of Oct 20, and the MLS sale-to-list read (98.1%) covers 32 sales as of Oct 30. Small, partial-month samples are directional — the October median is not directly comparable to September’s full-month $1,825,000 (43 sales). Median days on market was not published in Realty.com’s release, so it comes from the next source in the fallback chain: Redfin reports a 49-day median for homes sold over the three months ending September 2026 (Redfin calculations from MLS and/or public records; 48 days a year earlier) — a different source and an older, longer window. RealtyHop’s 63-day figure (as of Nov 2) is an average for current listings, not a median for closings. Active-inventory counts vary by source and methodology: RealtyHop’s live residential count showed 73 (50 houses, 21 condos, 2 townhouses), refreshed hourly and down from 76 a week earlier, while Realty.com’s MLS snapshot (as of Oct 18) showed 151 homes for sale at a $1,265,000 median list price. 23.8% of October’s county-recorded buyers so far paid cash. Redfin is used only for median days on market; its city page was checked on Nov 2, 2026.

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Russell Walsh

Russell Walsh, Russell Walsh Realty — South Orange County real estate.

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